Xiantan Shares (002746) Research Express: Poor moulting effect, African swine fever or bird prices hit new high

Xiantan Shares (002746) Research Express: Poor moulting effect, African swine fever or bird prices hit new high

Parents have a poor moulting effect and have limited impact on the commercial moulting supply.

In October 2018, parent moulting began to increase. Under normal circumstances, the price of hairless chickens has exceeded the price of hairless chickens (not moulting), but since October last year, the price difference between hairless chickens and hairless chickensShrinking, the price was completely upside down in January this year, the price of hairless chickens reached a record high, and the moult reached its peak in January 2019.

Although the amount of moulting has increased significantly, the moulting effect is very poor. The price of commercial chicks has hit new highs frequently. The impact of this moulting on the supply of commercial chicks is limited. Therefore, 1) there is a shortage of cocks.The proportion of roosters is 15%, and in 2016 it was 13%, and the current proportion has further decreased; ② the liver disease of the parents is still serious; ③ the age of moulting is generally large.

We don’t think that moulting in this cycle will seriously increase downstream supply any more.

Affected by the African swine fever epidemic, the price of 2H2019 bird chain may reach a new high.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the number of domestic ancestor chicken introductions increased significantly from the previous month, corresponding to the increase in the supply of parent generation chicken seedlings from July to August 2019. From the perspective of the supply and demand situation of the broiler industry, the supply and demand gap in 2H2019 was lower than 1H2019.

However, if we consider the pork supply gap caused by African swine fever and the substitution effect of chicken on pork, the price of poultry chains in the second half of this year may reach a record high.

We believe that due to the continued swine fever epidemic in Africa, this round of pig price increases can be benchmarked against blue ear disease in 2006-2007, and the company’s chicken price in 2007 was up to 12,000 yuan / ton.

The company’s broiler production is expected to reach 1 in 2019.

300 million birds.

The company’s main products are commercial chicken and chicken products. Among them, chicken products are mainly sold in the form of divided frozen chicken products. The company’s commercial chicken production business is implemented by its own breeding farms and cooperative farms. Among them, self-cultivationIt accounts for less than 10% and is mainly used as a demonstration for cooperative farms, and more than 90% are farmed by cooperative farms.

In 2018, the company’s broiler production volume was about 1.

1.7 billion birds, the company is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in 2019-2021, and the number of broiler chickens in 2019 is expected to reach 1.

300 million birds.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

We expect the poultry chain to maintain a high boom in 2019, and the price of poultry chain may reach a new high in the second half of the year, and the company is expected to take full advantage of rising chicken prices.

We expect the company’s broiler broiler volume to be 1 in 2018-2020.

1.7 billion birds, 1.

300 million birds, 1.

49.5 billion pigeons, with sales income of 26 respectively.

100 million, 34.

800 million, 39.

9 trillion, an increase of 20 each year.

8%, 33.

0%, 14.

9%, net profit attributable to mothers4.

1.6 billion, 10.重庆耍耍网

2.9 billion, 11.

880,000 yuan (the original forecast was 3 for 2018-2019).

1.6 billion, 4.

2.1 billion), an increase of 294 each year.

2%, 156.

1%, 15.

4%, respectively, to achieve a profit of 1.

3 yuan, 3.

33 yuan, 3.

84 yuan.

Based on historical estimates of the company’s economic upturn, the company was given a 10x PE in 2019 and raised its target price to 33.3 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk factors: Epidemic; price rises exceed expectations.