Guizhou Moutai (600519): Guaranteed growth in performance of associated solutions

Guizhou Moutai (600519): Guaranteed growth in performance of associated solutions
The group marketing company plan was implemented, and the transaction amount did not exceed 5% of the net asset value at the end of the previous year. On August 9, Guizhou Moutai issued the “Announcement on Guizhou Moutai Wine Co., Ltd.’s Sales of Subsidiaries to Related Parties.”Following the standard of no more than 5% of the net asset value at the end of 2018, sales of the company’s products to Moutai Group continued. After 3 months, the group marketing company’s plan finally landed, the transaction pricing was reasonable, and it did not harm the interests of the company and shareholders, especially small and medium shareholders. We believe that the sales of the company’s products by Moutai Group will complement the company’s existing marketing system shortcomings, effectively enhance the brand’s influence, strengthen its ability to respond to market changes and iron out the economic cycle, and help the company’s sustainable, stable and healthy development.We estimate that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 35.76 yuan, 45.47 yuan and 54.26 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Calculated based on the ton price of Moutai in 2018, the transaction amount corresponds to approximately 2,772 tons of Moutai’s latest plan. The 2019 annual transaction amount does not exceed 5% (US $ 5.6 billion) of the company’s net assets at the end of 2018, as disclosed in the company’s 2018 annual report.According to the calculation of Moutai’s sales amount and tonnage, the price of Moutai in 2018 is 202 million / ton. We assume that the price of Moutai purchased by the camp marketing company in 2019 is the same as in 2018. Then, 5.6 billion transactions correspond to Moutai.At 2,772 tons, it only accounted for the company’s initial planned sales volume of Moutai3.1% of cobalt. Moutai will be released through direct sales and group purchases. The 600-ton commercial supermarket channel has taken the lead in landing. The company’s announcement in response to the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s regulatory work letter also shows that it will re-plan the management right of Moutai that has been recovered due to violations and put it into self-employment., Group purchase and other channels and methods in line with the company’s marketing strategy.Therefore, the company’s withdrawal of Moutai will be released to the market through direct sales and group purchases. On April 19 this year, Guizhou Maotai Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. opened a public service platform in Guizhou Province for the first time to publicly sell 600 tons of Maotai Liquor to the whole country and the supermarkets in Guizhou Province. On 苏州桑拿网 June 21, according to the public information released by the public service platform for tendering and bidding in Guizhou Province, Wumart, China Resources Vanguard, and RT-Mart as the national supermarkets, the first batch of shortlisted buyers, Guiyang Xingli Department Store, etc.The store shows that the company’s direct sales channels are advancing in an orderly and undistorted manner. The plan clarified that the sales price is the same as the purchase price of other non-affiliated dealers or the same pricing principles. Regarding the pricing principles of the transaction plan, the announcement clearly stated that “the sales price is the same as the purchase price or the same pricing principles of other unaffiliated dealers., That is, the group marketing company enjoys the same ex-factory price as the dealer; for the calculation 北京桑拿洗浴 method, the announcement also clearly states that “the settlement method is the same as that of other non-affiliated dealers”. We believe that the sales of the company’s products by the Moutai Group Marketing Company can exceed the Group’s advantages in terms of channels and resources, and further broaden the company’s product sales channels, which is conducive to the company’s sustainable, stable and healthy development. The company’s performance may continue to improve and maintain the “Buy” rating. We believe that the company’s performance will maintain rapid growth through the direct landing of direct sales channels. What do we expect from Guizhou Moutai 2019?In 2021, sales revenue will be 927.8.1 billion, 1151.500 billion and 1357.USD 4.1 billion, with annual growth of 20%, 24% and 18% respectively; EPS is 35.76 yuan, 45.47 yuan and 54.26 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, 27% and 19%.Comparable companies have an average PE of 31.4 times, giving the company 32 in 2019?34 times PE estimates, the target price range is 1144.32 yuan?1215.84 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: operating performance is lower than target, industry competition is intensified, macroeconomic performance is lower than expected, and food safety issues.