Qi Xiang Tengda (002408) Quarterly Report Review: The most difficult period for the three quarterly results to rebound slightly has passed

Qi Xiang Tengda (002408) Quarterly Report Review: The most difficult period for the three quarterly results to rebound slightly has passed
Matters: The company’s 2019Q1-Q3 revenue is 240.4.6 billion, previously +54.0%, of which 75 in 2019Q3 revenue.35 billion a year -5.7%, compared with -19.8%.The company’s net profit attributable to the parent in Q1 to Q3 20195.2.4 billion, at least -24.9%, of which net profit attributable to mothers in the third quarter of 20191.7 billion, at least -11.9%, +3 from the previous quarter.7%.  The third quarter report showed a slight rebound from the previous quarter. The core profitable varieties of the company caused by the 深圳桑拿网 increase in prices of main chemicals were methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride.At 2%, the price per ton of methyl ethyl ketone is 1873 yuan / ton, which is +6 from the previous month.9%; 2019Q3 The average price of maleic acid is 6,368 yuan / ton, +3 from the previous month.9%, n-butane method single ton price difference of 537 yuan / ton, turning losses into profitable “winter to spring”, the company’s most difficult period has most likely passed the company’s 2019Q2 and Q3 quarter results are from the 2017Q3 quarter (not considering the 2018Q4 oil price plummet)The historical low level may also be the most difficult period the company has encountered since 2017. The core reason is mainly that the prices of main products, methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride, have fallen to the bottom, causing the price gap to continue to narrow.Specifically, the price of methyl ethyl ketone fell to 5,900 yuan / ton at the end of the Q2 quarter, which is 1,800 yuan / ton lower than the historical average, and the price per ton fell to 800 yuan / ton; the forward price fell to 5,400 yuan / ton in the Q2 quarter.Ton, close to the historical lowest price of 5,350 yuan / ton, the n-butane method is basically in the state of replacement.At present, the prices of methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride are in an upward channel, and it is unlikely that they will fall to historical lows again.  New projects are progressing in an orderly manner and high growth is worth looking forward to 1) MMA project: MMA project has been started and is currently under active construction; 2) PDH project: the project has been completed so far, the project progress may be second only to MMA; 3) PO project:The transfer license agreement has been signed, and we believe that the project design and construction are being actively promoted; 4) Adiponitrile project: The company announced in July that it will jointly build a 100 nylon 60 industrial base with China Tianchen, the project includes the construction of 20 selected adiponitrilesWe believe that the company is promoting land transfer and project design.  Continued increase in shareholdings + repurchases demonstrates the firm shareholders’ confidence in the company’s future development. 1) Progress in increase in shareholdings: According to the company’s announcement, Qixiang Group must complete the increase in shareholdings by more than 800 million by November 15, 2019.In the third quarterly announcement, we calculated that as of September 30, 2019, the company had gradually increased its holdings of 65.48 million shares, with a total value added of 5.10,000 yuan.  2) Repurchase progress: The company has been repurchasing shares since the beginning of the year. As of September 30, the company has gradually repurchased 921.50,000 shares with a turnover of 6953.50,000 yuan (excluding transaction costs), and according to the company’s repurchase plan, that is, before December 4, 2019, the repurchase amount should be no less than 500 million, and no more than 1 billion.We expect that major shareholders and the company will continue to promote the increase and repurchase of the company’s shares.  Profit forecast, estimate, investment rating maintained 19/20/21 net profit forecast7.0/10.0/16.800 million, EPS is 0.39/0.56/0.95 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 18.5/13.0/7.7 杭州夜网论坛 times.Maintain the “overweight” rating.  Risk warning: oil price plummets risk; methyl ethyl ketone price drops severely; holdings and repurchases are weaker than expected risks